{"id":23212,"date":"2023-10-09T09:52:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:52:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/?p=23212"},"modified":"2023-10-10T10:03:14","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T08:03:14","slug":"wisdomtree-impact-du-conflit-au-moyen-orient-sur-le-petrole-et-lor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wisdomtree-impact-du-conflit-au-moyen-orient-sur-le-petrole-et-lor\/","title":{"rendered":"WisdomTree : Impact du conflit au Moyen-Orient sur le p\u00e9trole et l’or"},"content":{"rendered":"
Nitesh Shah, responsable de la recherche sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et la macro\u00e9conomie chez WisdomTree<\/strong>, donne une premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action aux mouvements des prix du p\u00e9trole et de l’or apr\u00e8s l’attaque du Hamas contre Isra\u00ebl.<\/h5>\n

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Nitesh Shah, responsable de la recherche sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et la macro\u00e9conomie chez WisdomTree<\/span><\/h5>\n
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P\u00e9trole <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 L’attaque du Hamas contre Isra\u00ebl a accru le risque g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 Cette situation entra\u00eene une hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole, compte tenu de l’importance de la r\u00e9gion dans la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 Au cours de la semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant l’attaque, les prix du p\u00e9trole avaient en fait baiss\u00e9, en raison des fortes turbulences sur les march\u00e9s financiers (vente d’obligations) qui ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 mettre en doute la demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 Par ailleurs, un accord n\u00e9goci\u00e9 par les \u00c9tats-Unis, selon lequel l’Arabie saoudite reconna\u00eetrait Isra\u00ebl et s’engagerait \u00e0 augmenter sa production avant la fin de l’ann\u00e9e, \u00e9tait en vue.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 L’attaque du Hamas a clairement mis un terme \u00e0 cette \u00e9volution.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0 Le soutien de l’Iran au Hamas lui vaudra probablement d’\u00eatre attaqu\u00e9 par Isra\u00ebl. En outre, les relations entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l’Iran ne devraient pas se d\u00e9grader davantage et la capacit\u00e9 de l’Iran \u00e0 augmenter sa production de p\u00e9trole sera remise en question (les discussions ant\u00e9rieures sur le nucl\u00e9aire entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l’Iran ont permis \u00e0 l’Iran d’augmenter ses exportations de p\u00e9trole).<\/p>\n

Or<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 L’or est en hausse car les risques g\u00e9opolitiques sont pris en compte dans le prix du m\u00e9tal.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Le m\u00e9tal a une solide r\u00e9putation de couverture g\u00e9opolitique, m\u00eame si les mouvements de prix se dissipent souvent rapidement. Occasionnellement, les hausses de prix se maintiennent et sont tr\u00e8s significatives.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 Prenons l’exemple de la guerre du Kippour, il y a 50 ans, o\u00f9 le prix de l’or a bondi de plus de 47 % un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement :<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nEvent date<\/strong><\/td>\nGold Price Change 1 year forward<\/strong><\/td>\nWorld Equities Price Change 1 year forward<\/strong><\/td>\nRelative gold outperformance<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Greece government deficit announcement<\/strong><\/td>\n20\/10\/2009<\/td>\n26.5%<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n22.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Global financial crisis<\/strong><\/td>\n15\/09\/2008<\/td>\n31.6%<\/td>\n-12.7%<\/td>\n44.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9\/11 Terrorist Attack<\/strong><\/td>\n11\/09\/2001<\/td>\n16.9%<\/td>\n-15.1%<\/td>\n32.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dotcom bubble<\/strong><\/td>\n11\/03\/2000<\/td>\n-6.0%<\/td>\n-17.5%<\/td>\n11.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Desert Storm (First Gulf War)<\/strong><\/td>\n02\/08\/1990<\/td>\n-3.5%<\/td>\n-2.9%<\/td>\n-0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Junk bond crash<\/strong><\/td>\n13\/10\/1989<\/td>\n6.9%<\/td>\n-16.0%<\/td>\n22.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Black Monday<\/strong><\/td>\n19\/10\/1987<\/td>\n-11.6%<\/td>\n-0.7%<\/td>\n-10.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nixon’s Resignation<\/strong><\/td>\n09\/08\/1974<\/td>\n14.9%<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n10.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yom Kippur War<\/strong><\/td>\n06\/10\/1973<\/td>\n47.4%<\/td>\n-42.0%<\/td>\n89.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAverage<\/td>\n13.7%<\/td>\n-10.9%<\/td>\n24.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source : Bloomberg, WisdomTree : Bloomberg, WisdomTree. L’or est bas\u00e9 sur les prix au comptant de Bloomberg et les actions sont bas\u00e9es sur l’indice S&P 500.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: ETFWorld<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nitesh Shah, responsable de la recherche sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et la macro\u00e9conomie chez WisdomTree, donne une premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action aux mouvements des prix du p\u00e9trole et de l’or apr\u00e8s l’attaque du Hamas contre Isra\u00ebl.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":18244,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[44],"tags":[80,205],"class_list":["post-23212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyses-etf","tag-etf","tag-wisdomtree"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23212"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23215,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23212\/revisions\/23215"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18244"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}