{"id":20263,"date":"2022-05-13T11:12:08","date_gmt":"2022-05-13T09:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/?p=20263"},"modified":"2022-05-13T11:16:18","modified_gmt":"2022-05-13T09:16:18","slug":"spdr-strategy-espresso-japon-politique-accommodante-yen-faible-et-valorisations-peu-elevees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/fr\/spdr-strategy-espresso-japon-politique-accommodante-yen-faible-et-valorisations-peu-elevees\/","title":{"rendered":"SPDR Strategy Espresso: Japon : politique accommodante, yen faible et valorisations peu \u00e9lev\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"

SPDR Strategy Espresso : Les actions japonaises ont relativement bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 au cours des quatre premiers <\/span>mois de<\/span> l\u2019ann\u00e9e<\/span>, en particulier<\/span> si l\u2019on consid\u00e8re la performance<\/span> en devise local… <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Inscrivez-vous pour recevoir les Newsletters gratuites de ETFWorld.fr<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\n

SPDR \/ Strategy Espresso<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Antoine Lesn\u00e9, Responsable de la Recherche et de la Strat\u00e9gie de SPDR<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

car <\/span>la forte baisse du yen a profit\u00e9 aux entreprises japonaises cycliques,<\/span> orient\u00e9es vers <\/span>l’exportation<\/span> et<\/span> souvent<\/span> internationales,<\/span> renfor\u00e7ant<\/span> leur<\/span> comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9<\/span> ou <\/span>am\u00e9liorant directement leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices<\/span> libell\u00e9s en devise locale<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

L’inflation<\/span> extr\u00eamement<\/span> faible<\/span> a<\/span> permis<\/span> \u00e0<\/span> la<\/span> Banque<\/span> du<\/span> Japon<\/span> de<\/span> rester <\/span>accommodante, maintenant les<\/span> rendements \u00e0 un n<\/span>iveau bas et soutenant ainsi la <\/span>valorisation<\/span> des<\/span> actions d\u00e9j\u00e0 peu<\/span> ch\u00e8res<\/span>. D<\/span>ans le m\u00eame temps, les mesures <\/span>budg\u00e9taire<\/span>s<\/span> adopt\u00e9es au pays du soleil levant<\/span> offre<\/span>nt,<\/span> \u00e0 l’\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle<\/span>,<\/span> un<\/span>e <\/span>protection<\/span> contre la hausse des prix des<\/span> mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.<\/span><\/p>\n

Au cours des quatre premiers mois de 2022, les actions japonaises<\/span> libell\u00e9es<\/span> en<\/span> yen<\/span>, <\/span>ont offert un certain degr\u00e9 de protection<\/span> face \u00e0 l<\/span>a d\u00e9<\/span>gradation<\/span> du contexte <\/span>g\u00e9opolitique et \u00e9conomique<\/span>. Elles ont enregistr\u00e9 un<\/span>e baisse<\/span> de 4,2%<\/span> 1<\/span> \u00ab<\/span> seule<\/span>ment<\/span> \u00bb <\/span>comparativement au<\/span> net recul subi par le<\/span> MSCI World (<\/span>libell\u00e9<\/span> en USD)<\/span> qui a atteint les <\/span>–<\/span>13%<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Plusieurs raisons expliquent cette performance relativement<\/span> vigoureuse<\/span> des titres <\/span>libell\u00e9<\/span>s<\/span> en devise locale<\/span>. La cause premi\u00e8re<\/span> en<\/span> est l’inflation<\/span> –<\/span> ou, pour \u00eatre plus pr\u00e9cis, <\/span>l’absence d’inflation. Alors que les prix \u00e0 la consommation augmentent<\/span> de mani\u00e8re<\/span>
cons\u00e9quente<\/span> dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, l’inflation au Japon (mesur\u00e9e par l’IPC) devrait <\/span>se stabiliser autour de<\/span> 2 % en 2022, selon<\/span> les \u00e9conomistes de State Street Global <\/span>Advisors<\/span>2<\/span> .<\/span><\/p>\n

La faible inflation<\/span> sur les prix \u00e0 la consommation<\/span> permet<\/span> ainsi<\/span> \u00e0 la Banque du Japon de <\/span>rester<\/span> accommodante<\/span>,<\/span> et de ne pas avoir \u00e0 adopter de mesures restrictives telles <\/span>celles amorc\u00e9es un peu partout dans<\/span> le monde par ses homologues<\/span><\/strong>.<\/strong> En cons\u00e9quence, <\/span>les rendements<\/span> y<\/span> restent extr\u00eamement bas<\/span> sur l’ensemble de la courbe<\/span>, les obligations <\/span>d’\u00c9tat japonaises \u00e0 10 ans<\/span> ne \u00ab<\/span> ra<\/span>pportant<\/span> \u00bb que<\/span> 0,22 %<\/span> 3<\/span> ,<\/span> bien loin des 3% environ des <\/span>B<\/span>ons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain. Elles resten<\/span>t \u00e9galement en de\u00e7\u00e0 des 0,94% g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s par le <\/span>taux du B<\/span>und allemand \u00e0 10 ans<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

La<\/span> faiblesse<\/span> des<\/span> rendements<\/span> est<\/span> un<\/span> facteur<\/span> de<\/span> soutien<\/span> suppl\u00e9mentaire<\/span> aux <\/span>va<\/span>lorisations d\u00e9j\u00e0 peu<\/span> ch\u00e8res<\/span>, avec un PER \u00e0 12,4×4 \u00e0 12 mois, ce qui<\/span> offre un g\u00e9n\u00e9reux <\/span><\/strong>rendement de pr\u00e8s de 8,1%.<\/strong> La politique budg\u00e9taire est \u00e9galement favorable, avec<\/span> un <\/span>budget<\/span> record de 107 600 milliards de yens (936 milliards de dollars)<\/span> 5<\/span> approuv\u00e9<\/span> en <\/span>d\u00e9but d’ann\u00e9e<\/span> :<\/span> les d\u00e9p<\/span>enses programm\u00e9es en soutien \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie<\/span> ont<\/span> \u00e9t\u00e9 initi\u00e9<\/span>s <\/span>afin de<\/span> la<\/span> soulager<\/span> du<\/span> poids que repr\u00e9sente<\/span> la<\/span> h<\/span>ausse des prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res <\/span>pour tous les acteurs<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

La divergence de l’approche mon\u00e9taire de la Banque du Japon, notamment par <\/span>rapport \u00e0<\/span> la politique mon\u00e9taire adopt\u00e9e par<\/span> la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed), a <\/span><\/strong>entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du yen.<\/strong> L<\/span>e<\/span> cours du Yen<\/span> a d\u00e9pass\u00e9<\/span> les<\/span> 130<\/span> contre le <\/span>dollar am\u00e9ricain<\/span> en avril, un niveau jamais atteint en deux d\u00e9cennies. Il va sans dire <\/span>que les investisseurs qui ont d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de couvrir leur exposition au yen<\/span> s\u2019en sont bien <\/span>mieux sortis<\/span> puisque,<\/span> exprim\u00e9<\/span> en USD, le MSCI Japon a perdu 14,8 % depuis le d\u00e9but <\/span>de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que lorsque la Fed a relev\u00e9 ses taux de 50 points de base le <\/span>4 mai<\/span> (comme pr\u00e9vu), le yen est rest\u00e9 stable, ce qui pourrait sugg\u00e9rer que les hausses <\/span>de taux am\u00e9ricains d’un demi<\/span>–<\/span>point sont<\/span> d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement pric\u00e9es<\/span> dans le taux de <\/span>change. Toutefois, les investisseurs qui consid\u00e8rent qu’il s’agit d’une courte pause<\/span>, <\/span>plut\u00f4t que de la fin de la tendance \u00e0<\/span> l’affaiblissement du yen<\/span>,<\/span> pourraient pr\u00e9f\u00e9rer <\/span>opter pour une exposition couverte contre le r<\/span>isque de change.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"13-05-22<\/p>\n

Jouer les devises<\/span> r<\/span>est<\/span>e<\/span> une arme \u00e0 double<\/span> <\/strong>tranchant.<\/strong> Mais nous pensons que, pour le <\/span>MSCI Jap<\/span>a<\/span>n, un yen faible peut<\/span> \u00eatre plus b\u00e9n\u00e9fique que n\u00e9faste<\/span>, car<\/span> 47 %<\/span> des revenus <\/span>(<\/span>sur la base de la<\/span> capitalisation boursi\u00e8re<\/span> des entreprises inclues dans l\u2019indice<\/span>)<\/span> g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s <\/span>par les entreprises<\/span> repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es dans<\/span> l’indice<\/span> sont d\u00e9gag\u00e9s par des entreprises<\/span> non <\/span>j<\/span>apon<\/span>aises<\/span>. Bien que les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res p\u00e8sent, dans une certaine <\/span>mesure, sur l<\/span>e co\u00fbt des intrants,<\/span> la faiblesse d\u2019une<\/span> monnaie am\u00e9liore la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 <\/span>des exportateurs. Les entreprises qui<\/span> recourent \u00e0<\/span> des contrats libell\u00e9s en USD sont <\/span>particuli\u00e8rement bien positionn\u00e9es, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant d\u00e9j\u00e0 d’un avantage en termes de <\/span>chiffre d’affaires<\/span>, tandis que les entreprises internationales g\u00e9n\u00e9rant une partie de <\/span>leurs revenus et supportant des co\u00fbts en devises \u00e9trang\u00e8res<\/span>,<\/span> b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient d’un <\/span>rapatriement de<\/span> leur<\/span>s<\/span> profits<\/span> lorsqu’ils sont convertis en y<\/span>en<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"13-05-22<\/p>\n

Face \u00e0 la faiblesse du yen<\/span> et des rendements<\/span>,<\/span> ainsi qu\u2019<\/span>aux valorisations<\/span> peu \u00e9lev\u00e9es<\/span> et <\/span>\u00e0 l’\u00e9conomie mondiale qui<\/span> retrouve le chemin d\u2019une certaine \u00ab<\/span> normalit\u00e9<\/span> \u00bb<\/span> apr\u00e8s l<\/span>e <\/span>COVID, le MSCI Japan, cyclique et<\/span> en lien direct avec les<\/span> exportations, semble<\/span> donc <\/span>constituer<\/span> une<\/span> destination<\/span> int\u00e9ressante<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Comm<\/span>ent se positionner sur ce th\u00e8me<\/span> ?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Les investisseurs qui souhaitent acc\u00e9der aux actions japonaises peuvent le faire gr\u00e2ce <\/span>aux ETF<\/span>s<\/span> <\/strong>SPDR.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n

– ETF SPDR MSCI Japan UCITS<\/span><\/strong>
– ETF SPDR MSCI Japan EUR Hdg UCITS<\/span><\/strong>
– ETF SPDR MSCI Japan Climate Paris Aligned UCITS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/span> Source : Bloomberg Finance L.P., au 29 avril 2022.<\/span><\/span>
2<\/span> Source : State Street Global Advisors au 11 mars 2022.<\/span><\/span>
3<\/span> Source : Bloomberg Finance L.P., au 29 avril 2022.<\/span><\/span>
4<\/span> Source : Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors au 29 avril 2022.<\/span><\/span>
5<\/span> Source : Reuters au 29 avril 2022.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Source: ETFWordl.fr<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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