{"id":13335,"date":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/etfworld.co.uk\/index.php\/2011\/11\/25\/forex-markets-eur-continued-to-fall-on-the-lack-of-positive-triggers-on-the-debt-crisis-front\/"},"modified":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","slug":"forex-markets-eur-continued-to-fall-on-the-lack-of-positive-triggers-on-the-debt-crisis-front","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/forex-markets-eur-continued-to-fall-on-the-lack-of-positive-triggers-on-the-debt-crisis-front\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: EUR continued to fall on the lack of positive triggers on the debt crisis front"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">EUR continued to fall on the lack of positive triggers on the debt  crisis front, and only positive new drivers would reverse this next  week. GBP also fell, partly on negative data, and is expected to fall  further on the incoming data, barring surprises. JPY yielded, though  only slightly. Better-than-expected US data might help it to maintain  this trend..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Sign up for our weekly Newsletter and receive the latest ETF and ETC news.<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong>Click here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>USD (nominal effective exchange rate) <\/strong>\u2013  Next week is packed with  US data,  notably the employment report. Expectations are generally  positive, and if confirmed USD should strengthen further  vs. EUR and  GBP, though not necessarily vs. other currencies, many of which may be  boosted by favourable US data. <\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR \u2013<\/strong> EUR  fell this week  too, slipping from 1.36 to 1.32 EUR\/USD. As we had foreshadowed, the  currency was weakened by the lack of positive, concrete developments on  the crisis front. Although, for example, Monti won plaudits from Merkel  and Sarkozy over the fiscal consolidation programme for Italy, the same  summit meeting showed deep differences over how to resolve the crisis.  EUR may continue to fall next week in the absence of substantial and  constructive triggers. The technical target for this year\u2019s downwave  lies at 1.30-1.28 EUR\/USD. 1.3126 remains the key support before  1.3000.  By contrast, EUR would rebound on positive developments, upside  target 1.3558-1.3664.  <\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP \u2013<\/strong> GBP also depreciated, in  tandem with EUR, falling  from 1.58 to 1.54 GBP\/USD, and thus reaching  our downside target. The all was \u201cencouraged\u201d in part by the dovish  message contained in the BoE minutes \u2013 as expected\u2013 and by the dire  breakdown of 3Q11 GDP, showing once again that the growth came almost  entirely from inventories and that foreign trade again made a negative  contribution.  Due out next week are consumer credit and PMI  manufacturing for December. Overall, our expectations are slightly more  negative than the consensus.  In this case GBP should fall further,  temporarily dipping a short way below the downside target vs. USD. <\/p>\n<p><strong>JPY \u2013  <\/strong>JPY  yielded slightly this week, easing from 76 to 77 USD\/JPY.  If next week  the US data prove even  better than expected, JPY might fall further,  moving into the area 78 USD\/JPY. The Japanese authorities have recently  voiced growing concern over the domestic economy: (1) Standard &#038;  Poor\u2019s has indicated that the public finances are deteriorating day  after day, thus increasing the risk of a downgrade; (2) the IMF reports  that there is the risk of a \u201csudden spike in yields\u201d, the effect of  which would make the  level of debt unsustainable; (3) Shirakawa said  that the high level of risk aversion caused by the Euro area crisis may  harm the Japanese economy via the excessive strength of JPY.  <\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong> <br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR continued to fall on the lack of positive triggers on the debt crisis front, and only positive new drivers would reverse this next week. GBP also fell, partly on negative data, and is expected to fall further on the incoming data, barring surprises. JPY yielded, though only slightly. Better-than-expected US data might help it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":17114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-currenciescommodities-analysis"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etfworld.com\/co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}